Late in the 19th century, Paris hosted two major international expositions: the 1889 Universal Exposition , was held to mark the centennial of the French Revolution and featured the new Eiffel Tower; and the 1900 Universal Exposition , which gave Paris the Pont Alexandre III , the Grand Palais , the Petit Palais and the first Paris Métro line.  Paris became the laboratory of Naturalism ( Émile Zola ) and Symbolism ( Charles Baudelaire and Paul Verlaine ), and of Impressionism in art ( Courbet , Manet , Monet , Renoir ). 
2) Model error causes the underestimation of small probabilities & their contribution (on balance, because of convexity effects). Any model error, just as any undertainty about flying time causes the expected arrival to be delayed (you rarely land 4 hours early, more often 4 hours late on a transatlantic flight, so "unforeseen" disturbances tend to delay you). See my argument about second order effects with my paper . [INTUITION: uncertainty about the model used for calculation of random effects causes a second layer of randomness, causing small probabilities to rise on balance].